《新闻记者》周岩编译

Globally, the newspaper industry’s revenue decline will finally end in 2015... Global total newspaper revenue, after a period of decline, will start to climb again in 2015 as the growth in developing countries’ newspaper revenue begins to exceed the decline in mature markets. Growth will stabilise at 0.1% CAGR through to 2018.

But the future of newspapers will vary significantly by region. While the Asia Pacific market is set to grow at a CAGR of 3.4% through to 2018 based on increased consumer and advertiser demand, especially in China (8.3% CAGR) and India (7.5% CAGR), North America is forecast to fall at a CAGR of -4.2% as the migration of advertising and readers to digital continues.

据普华永道报告显示：全球报业收入下降的态势将于2015年终止，之后将出现增长。这主要得益于发展中国家报业收入的增长，其中亚太地区到2018年的年均增长率预计为3.4%，中国为8.3%，印度为7.5%。主要原因是消费者和广告主的需求增加。另外，数字优先的运营模式将是报纸行业的规范。预计北美地区的年均增长率为-4.2%，读者和广告继续向数字媒体迁移。

Circulation revenue will almost match advertising revenue by 2018. In 2013, while circulation revenue rose globally after years of decline, advertising revenue continued to fall. Circulation’s share of total revenue will rise from 47% in 2013 to 49% by 2018, meaning consumers may soon become publishers’ biggest source of revenue.

到2018年，发行总收入将与广告总收入持平。2013年，全球发行收入在经历数年下滑后出现增长，但广告收入继续减少。发行占总收入的份额将从2013年的47%提高到2018年的49%。

Digital payments are taking off, but won’t prove transformational. Digital newspaper circulation revenue grew by 66.2% through 2013. But despite individual publishers reporting improved fortunes, few are hailing a transformation – digital circulation will make up just 8% of total circulation revenue globally by 2018.

数字化支付正在加快步伐，但并未出现根本性的变化。2013年，数字化报纸的发行收入增长了66.2%。尽管个别发行人的确赚了一笔，但整体上看，取得成功的人数量仍然有限。到2018年，全球数字化发行将占到总发行收入的8%。

Growth in digital advertising revenue is slowing down. In 2013, publishers’ annual digital advertising revenue growth reduced to 11.7% – a far cry from the 17.7% growth of 2012. Publishers must work harder to realise new digital revenue returns, embracing new advertising technologies, promoting better usage measurement, and exploring controversial content marketing and payment schemes.

数字广告收入的增长速度正在放缓。相较于2012年17.7%的快速增长，2013年数字广告的年增幅降至11.7%。发行人们只有更加努力地工作才能获取数字收入回报，他们必须采用新的广告技术，推广更好的用户评估手段，探索仍具争议的内容营销和支付计划。

‘Digital-first’ is becoming the norm for newspaper publishers. For many years, news publishers’ digital output was led by their print products. But increasingly, titles will be reorganised as ‘digital-first’ operations, publishing content that works best on connected devices.

数字优先正在成为报纸发行人的行为准则。多少年以来，报纸发行人们的数字化产出是由报纸的印刷产品带来的。然而，正在变得日益明显的趋势是，随着数字优先部门出版的内容在电子设备上的上佳表现，许多报社品牌将面临重组和再造。

（《2014-2018年全球娱乐与媒体展望》，普华永道网站http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/global-entertainment-media-outlook/segment-insights/newspaper-publishing.jhtml）